After decades of false starts, electric vehicles are about to hit the American road in serious numbers. While EVs and plug-in hybrids must still prove themselves, this is still an exciting, watershed moment in automotive history. But while cars such as the Nissan Leaf and Chevy Volt are sparking early-adopter love, these aren’t iPods cranked out by the tens of millions; initial demand for Leafs and Volts will surely outstrip early supply. Some would-be buyers are bound to be disappointed, especially since independent car dealers -- only too aware of supply and demand in their now dusty showrooms -- aren’t bound to play by any of the rules set by automakers.
To wit: A new Nissan press release says that owners are “one step closer” to owning the Leaf, the electric hatchback that will never visit a gas station or emit a whiff of tailpipe pollution. On a new Nissan website, buyers in California, Arizona, Tennessee, Washington and Oregon -- where, beginning in December, Leafs are set to arrive first -- can pick out colors and select options for their Leaf. So far, 18,600 people have put down $99 to “reserve” a Leaf online, nearing Nissan’s target of 25,000 by December.
I’ll reserve final judgment, but I’m increasingly nervous that that the Leaf’s “reservation” system is like seeking a ticket for a Beatles reunion: You might have a place in line, but when or whether you’ll be hearing “Ticket to Ride” is another issue. Here’s the thing: To complete your “order” online, you must first find a dealer who’ll negotiate a price, check your credit, take some earnest money as down payment, etc.
That's par for the course. After you’ve nailed down a deal and gone online, your order will be placed in sequence for production and delivery. People who ordered first in the initial-rollout regions will rightly get the first cars. Following those initial five states, the Leaf will hit Texas and Hawaii in January; in April it will go to seven East Coast states from Florida to Virginia and to Washington, D.C.; and the nation at large will get the Leaf beginning in the fall of 2011, with coast-to-coast "availability" by year's end.
But since Nissan is still looking for people to become Mr. 24,999 in that list of 25,000, it's only fair to ask, "When, exactly, might I expect delivery?" That’s a question Nissan can’t precisely answer. It seems evident that if you placed an order today and live in, say, New York or Chicago, you can already forget seeing a 2011 Leaf -- you’ll be waiting for the 2012 model, and 2012 calendar year for delivery.
A Nissan spokesman acknowledged, "If you are in one of the launch states and act soon, you should probably see a Leaf by [the end of 2011]. But if you are in a nonlaunch state with no infrastructure with limited dealers and limited public policy, chances are slim."
Nissan also pointed out that the $99 reservation does not “hold” a car for you at a dealership. Only a dealer can do that, after he’s decided to sell you one of his precious Leafs -- or, you know, not. We’ve already seen some Chevy dealers looking to charge $10,000 and more above sticker price for Volts, so there’s no reason to expect some Nissan dealers won’t do the same. Other dealers will, of course, play fair, knowing that a happy customer is a repeat customer. And hey, business is business. No one makes a peep when dealers, on a daily basis, chop thousands off sticker prices to move unpopular cars. But when a dealer wants to make even $500 extra on a red-hot model, he’s suddenly “price gouging.”
Our usual consumer advice holds: If you want any car -- be it a Leaf, a Volt or a Ferrari -- so badly that you’re willing to pay over sticker price to be first on the block, go right ahead. If not, either walk away and find a dealer who’s willing to deal or wait until the feeding frenzy cools off.
That goes for the Leaf, as well. If you’re excited about the prospect of never setting foot in a gas station and never emitting a whiff of tailpipe pollution, get in line. But you may want to pack a nice snack for the wait.